Oregon voters drop party affiliations
Growing portion of electorate declare political independence
By James Sinks / The Bulletin
December 4 2005

SALEM - Julia Beene, of Bend, considers herself an independent thinker, and sees her politics the same way.

The preschool owner may lean to the right of center - she voted for President Bush in 2004 - but she doesn't consider herself a Republican. Or a Democrat either.

The major parties, she said, aren't relevant. They're extreme. And neither of them reflects exactly how she believes.

"It's the issues and the individual politicians that I pay attention to," she said. "The general population is in the middle, and that's where I am."

Beene, who is registered unaffiliated, is part of the growing number of Oregonians that see themselves in the middle. And they're the kinds of voters who could play a pivotal role in several ballot box issues in 2006, including a possible gubernatorial bid by Sen. Ben Westlund, R-Tumalo, a moderate who frequently works across the political aisle at the Capitol. The longtime politician is mulling a run, but as an independent. "Independents are the fastest-growing segment of the electorate, and that not only reflects a growing disenchantment with the parties, but also that the two major parties are ineffectual at addressing the challenges facing Oregon today," he said. Westlund blames partisanship and the refusal to compromise for stymieing major proposals on tax reform, renewable energy development and heallth care reform. On Oregon's 2006 ballot, middle-of-the-road voters also could help open the state's May primary elections - in which the major parties hold members-only run-offs for political seats - to all registered voters. On Oregon's 2006 ballot, middle-of-the-road voters also could help open the state's May primary elections - in which the major parties hold members-only runoffs for political seats - to all registered voters. The rank of independent voters has swelled over the past 15 years and now accounts for 22 percent of the electorate, according to the state elections division. In 1990, the percentage of unaffiliated voters was 11 percent. Jeff Dense, a political science professor at Eastern Oregon University in La Grande, said the movement away from parties, known as "dealignment," is most profound among young voters who don't identify with either of them.

And few people are involved anymore in their local precincts or rely on parties for government news, which was the norm a century ago, he said.

There are moderate voters within each party, as well, who do not vote strictly along party lines, he said.

Westlund does not fit in neatly under either party platform.

He opposes same-sex marriage but supports civil unions, supports raising cigarette taxes to expand public health care, and supports a sales tax that would lower income and property taxes.

As a result, he would seem to face long odds in a Republican primary.

Yet he doesn't have a Democrat pedigree, either.

He favors gun rights, supports additional logging and water pumping in Central Oregon, believes the statewide land use system is too strict and has supported tax breaks for corporations.

Nationally, centrist voters were critical in helping moderates to victories last month, like New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, a Republican in a Democratic state, and new Virginia Gov.-elect Timothy Kaine, a Democrat in a Republican state.

While Oregon has an edge in Democratic voter registration, it remains a political center state, said Jim Moore, political science professor at Pacific University in Forest Grove.

"Now, the center is held by moderate Democrats and not the moderate Republicans who held it for a century," he said.

But people are not so fed up with partisan politics to simply look elsewhere, he said. Next year may offer an opening for a centrist third-party candidate, he said, but only if he or she can find issues that resonate and aren't being touted by the major parties.

More than half of voters are still undecided about whether they would support incumbent Gov. Ted Kulongoski, a Demo-crat, or anyone in the field of Republican hopefuls, according to recent polls.

"The public views politicians and politics at lower and lower levels of trust," Moore said, with partisan bickering and corruption among the major reasons.

And third-party candidates can win, he said, pointing to former Gov. Jesse Ventura of Minnesota.

Julius Meyer, Oregon's governor from 1931 to 1935, was an independent.

Bend voter Joann Hauck, who changed her voter registration in October to nonaffiliated, said she is open to the best candidate regardless of party, including an independent.

"It truly is about the person rather than the party," she said. "I don't care what party Bush is under, I would not vote for him."

Republican campaign strategist Chuck Adams, who runs a Salem consulting firm, said disagreements in government aren't because of parties, but over how to deal with important policy matters.

Partisanship is just part of that process, he said.

"The prime battles in Oregon for the past decade have been over taxes and tax policy, the role of government related to how criminals are treated and some social issues," he said.

"People are divided not because of one party or another, but because of different philosophies. And that is not going to go away no matter what you are labeled, even nonpartisan."

He agrees that more voters do not see themselves in either party. He labels them "hybrids."

In today's political landscape, he does not see enough discontent for voters to elect a candidate that is not from one of the two major parties, he said.

Still, the Democrat-controlled Oregon Senate this year made a statement about the role of political parties, voting to make the Legislature nonpartisan. Westlund was among those to vote for the plan, but it died in the Republican-controlled House.

"We're so tied up in partisanship that we can't solve fundamental problems," said Sen. Charlie Ringo, D-Beaverton, who carried the legislation to the floor.

Third party and independent candidates are not unusual, but they typically represent interests coming from the political flanks.

Presidential spoiler Ralph Nader of the Green Party courted voters from the left of the political spectrum.

And the 1990 Oregon governor race was decided in part by independent Al Mobley, who is credited with siphoning enough conservative voters away from the Republican candidate, then-attorney general and now University of Oregon President David Frohnmayer, to give the race to Democrat Barbara Roberts.

Roberts received 43 percent of the vote, Frohnmayer received 40 percent and Mobley received 13 percent.

Mobley entered the race at the behest of conservative Republicans, who were angry about Frohnmayer's positions on social issues, mainly his support of abortion rights.

Westlund said he has no interest in playing a spoiler role. If he runs, it's to become the next governor, he said.

He has until February to change his party affiliation from Republican to nonaffiliated, if he decides to do so, and would not need to formally file until August, he said.

Even without launching a formal exploratory campaign, Westlund - who is well-known in Central Oregon but lacks statewide exposure - has already made a splash with some of the state's largest media outlets.

An editorial in The Oregonian urged him to enter the race, and on Nov. 27 a Salem Statesman Journal opinion gave him a backhanded compliment, saying he is the "best candidate" for Oregon - but that he could not win as an independent.

If he runs, Westlund would not be lonely in the middle, Eastern Oregon professor Dense said.

The eventual nominees from both parties - after doing what it takes to win the support of their party in the May primary - will try to reposition themselves to the political center for the November general election, he said.

"The model of voter maximization posits that candidates will move to center of the spectrum and thus end up sharing many issue stances," Dense said.

Phil Keisling, the former secretary of state who is spearheading the open primary ballot campaign, said people appear to be tiring of the lack of meaningful solutions yielded by a party system that played a much bigger role in people's lives 100 years ago.

"Both parties seek safety, and it's a lot safer to pretend there is no crisis looming," he said.

The proposal, which is similar to a measure that passed but is under appeal in Washington state, would allow all voters to choose from the full slate of candidates in the May primary. The top two finishers would face off in the general election.

The reform could lead to more centrist candidates, and also might reward candidates who come up with big ideas that appeal to everybody - and not just pass the litmus tests of voters on the right or left.

James Sinks can be reached at 503-566-2839 or at jamess@cyberis.net.