Oregon voters will have ringside seats to a political brawl in next year's governor's race, if early signs of a turbulent free-for-all hold up.
On the Democratic side, at least five challengers with elective backgrounds are making noises about taking on fellow Democrat Gov. Ted Kulongoski -- a rare multiflank attack on an incumbent.
The Republican contest, with three serious candidates, promises another in a series of gritty ideological battles between moderate and conservative wings of the party.
And to spice the possibilities even more, Sen. Ben Westlund, a moderate Republican from Central Oregon, is close to deciding whether to drop his party label and mount an independent run. That would set up a three-way showdown once the major party nominees have been settled.
That's one passel of candidates for an election in which an experienced incumbent, with no major scandal or other fatal blot on his record, has announced plans to run again. In 1998, for example, when Gov. John Kitzhaber ran for a second term, he had two primary challengers, neither of whom had ever held political office.
At the time, Kitzhaber was seen as all but unbeatable. The rush this time suggests increased frustration with the status quo in Oregon -- as well as a tingling sense of Kulongoski's vulnerability.
"The larger story is, why are these people running?" says Robert Eisinger, political science professor at Lewis and Clark College in Portland. "They actually think they can unseat this guy."
Such notions have been buttressed by national indicators of Kulongoski's tentative hold on the governor's seat. Several analysts have ranked the governor among the most vulnerable in the United States. Last month, Roll Call, a Washington, D.C.-based political analysis newspaper, ranked Oregon as one of five states in which the governor's office might change party hands.
"It just seems if you have problems with your base and with the other party, that's not something many governors across this country are dealing with," said Louis Jacobson, Roll Call deputy editor who writes a column on politics outside Washington. "That was probably the biggest factor for me."
The hardest numbers in the race so far come from a statewide poll made public in August that showed Kulongoski the clear leader. According to the survey, by Portland pollster Mike Riley, Kulongoski has the support of 58 percent of Democrats who responded. He also led in head-to-head match-ups against Republican candidates.
But the results did little to scare off challengers.
Two Democratic state senators, Rick Metsger and Vicki Walker, launched exploratory bids to take on Kulongoski in the May 2006 primary. Walker says she'll make a final decision by the end of the month; Metsger says he's a week away from his.
Lane County Commissioner Pete Sorenson, a Democrat, declared his candidacy months ago. Former state Treasurer Jim Hill, who ran in the 2002 primary against Kulongoski, says he may try again. And Kitzhaber has acknowledged that he's being urged to run.
"It's still a pregnant and hanging question, what his plans are," says Steve Marks, Kitzhaber's friend and former chief of staff.
It's possible, of course, that few or none of the governor's potential challengers will go forward, file and mount a campaign. Kulongoski has a reputation as a formidable fundraiser and tough campaigner.
The main jockeying right now is over who can raise the money, get the endorsements and get the traction necessary to cause Kulongoski problems.
"There's a lot of political intrigue at this point," says Tom Bruggere, retired high-tech entrepreneur and Democrat who ran unsuccessfully for U.S. Senate in 1996 against Republican Sen. Gordon Smith. "How it all plays out is unclear."
The Republican ticket appears more stable. Kevin Mannix, former state party chairman, formally kicked off his campaign earlier this week. Ron Saxton, a Portland lawyer, has been gearing up for a run for months. The two faced each other in the 2002 primary.
Sen. Jason Atkinson of Central Point has been crisscrossing the state, drumming up support and money for his bid. Two other candidates with little political experience, David Beem of Salem and William Spidal of Nehalem, have filed.
This early in the campaign, the main race is over money. Felix Schein, spokesman for Saxton's campaign, says donations are rolling in at a heady pace. "We're north of $750,000," Schein said, adding that he expects Saxton to be the first candidate to break $1 million in campaign contributions.
Atkinson says he's "right on target" with his fundraising but wouldn't be specific.
Craig Berkman, former state Republican chairman and a one-time candidate for governor, says that despite the national doubting of Kulongoski, the Republicans have some tough obstacles to overcome before claiming the seat. Beating an incumbent is one of the most difficult things to do in politics, he says, and national events -- including the indictment of a prominent official in a Republican White House -- haven't helped.
"Right now, the climate for Republicans generally doesn't appear to be the best," Berkman says.
Democrats haven't exactly shined, either, says Westlund, which is why he's considering an attempt as an independent.
Oregon is "spiraling into mediocrity or below," Westlund says. "I don't see enough with our current governor that is going to reverse that trend. And I see little with the declared Republican candidates that would reverse that trend."
Eisinger, the Lewis and Clark political scientist, says voters should appreciate the competition.
"We have a wide range of gubernatorial candidates who reflect various types of policies and ideas," he says. "The citizens of Oregon will have ample opportunity to hear those views. And that's a good thing."
Harry Esteve: 503-221-8226; harryesteve@news.oregonian.com
©2005 The Oregonian